The Ace in the Nose

In a provocative column that most of New England probably doesn’t want to read, Dave D’Onofrio of the Concord Monitor says that it might be time to trade Josh Beckett.  While it is true that, as D’Onofrio states, the Sox need to undergo more than some mild re-tooling if they’re truly going to compete against the Yankees next year,  there’s no question that Theo should definitely keep Josh Beckett.

If we want to start talking about pie-in-the-sky deals for Pujols or Greinke or Lincecum, sure throw Josh Beckett into the never-gonna happen trades that you’re pining for.  But in reality, those guys aren’t coming to Boston no matter how hard you hope.  D’Onofrio maintains that Beckett’s mouth-watering resume could possibly fool rival G.M.s into trading for what he sees as an overvalued, declining neverwas-superstar.  If D’Onofrio really thought that was a legitmate possibility perhaps he shouldn’t have published it in a newspaper—I think the secret’s out.

Truth be told, D’Onofrio’s trade talk is thoughtful and measured.  In fact, he writes that a deal for Josh Beckett “ isn’t something [the Sox] should do if not presented with the proper, hole-plugging package.”  We can debate all day long whether that package could materialize.  The more interesting, and valid, point in D’Onofrio’s piece is that the Sox should examine all of the options in their arsenal and sell declining assets at their highest possible price.  My point is that Beckett’s value is higher than D’Onofrio says it is.

D’Onofrio writes, “The perception of Beckett is that he’s a bona fide ace,” but then goes on to say “But, by and large, the reality has been something else altogether…  Cliff Lee is an ace. CC Sabathia is an ace. Beckett is not an ace.”

Well, let’s see.  Since 2005, his third full season in the league and first with over 25 starts, he’s 80-42 with a 3.91 ERA.  He’s been a 20 game winner and a World Series champion, an All-Star twice and finished second in Cy Young voting.

Beckett has a reputation as one of the best big-game pitchers in baseball.  In his nine career postseason series, Beckett is 7-3 with a 3.07 ERA and has thrown three complete-game shutouts.  D’Onofrio maintains that Beckett’s head honcho reputation is undeserved because of his ballooned 7.71 ERA in his last four playoff starts.  While those numbers are alarming, four starts does not a career make.

Let’s just look at last year.  Certainly any Red Sox fan will tell you that Beckett looked about as comfortable on the mound when he pitched as we did in our chairs.  But considering the aggravation and the headlines he caused, Beckett finished with a sneaky-good season.  He was buoyed by an offense that looked at times like the class of the league, but he still pitched very, very well.  He finished 17-6 with a 3.86 ERA.  He went the full distance four times and notched two shutouts.  He struck out an impressive 8.4 batters per nine innings (the third highest mark in his career), struck batters out 3.6 more times than he walked them, and his ERA+ was the second highest it’s ever been.

Cliff Lee, on the other hand, was generally considered a disappointment earlier this year.  Before being traded to the Phillies (after being deemed a, you guessed  it, overvalued and over-the-hill never-was superstar) Lee was proving to the world that his 2008 Cy Young Award was an aberration.  He was allowing almost ten hits per nine innings and striking out only six batters.  He wasn’t bad by any stretch (he was 7-6 on an awful team with an impressive 3.14 ERA ) but was thought to be overvalued by the rest of the league, based on an inflated previous record.

You see where I’m going with this, right?

What’s the rest of the story?  Lee kills the National League, which isn’t surprising, but then DOMINATES both NL and AL hitter alike in the playoffs.  Like Beckett before him, Lee elevates his game to a supreme level when the season’s on the line and may potentially prove to be the cornerstone of a World Series champion team.  And, all of a sudden, he’s an ace that a team like the Red Sox could never get.

Well, we’ve got that guy.  In fact, we’ve got two of those guys in Beckett and Jon Lester.  And the biggest thing the Sox can do to prove it is to add another middle of the order bat.  Sometimes you just can’t see what’s right under your nose.

Tags: Josh Beckett